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 Broker's Notes: Gold prices edges higher; yen drops against dollar

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PostSubject: Broker's Notes: Gold prices edges higher; yen drops against dollar   Tue Mar 22, 2011 7:05 pm

Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday on concerns about inflation triggered by high oil prices and an increased safe-haven appeal amid growing tensions in the Middle East following western powers' air strikes on Libya.
Investors also kept an eye on Japan's progress in averting a full-blown nuclear disaster, caused by a devastating earthquake and tsunami on March 11 that prompted a surge in physical gold premiums to three-year highs as buyers in less affected parts of the nation stretched supply.
Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust fell a hefty 10.616 tonnes, its biggest one-time fall since late January, suggesting some investors might have lost interest in bullion for the time being.
The sentiment was echoed by a technical analysis, which indicated that gold may retrace to $1,416, as the current rally is exhausted.
The yen fell against the US dollar for a second day on Monday, with investors wary of more central bank selling to weaken the Japanese currency, though markets could test the authorities' resolve by pushing the currency back toward the 80 yen level.
Friday's coordinated invention by the world's major central banks - the first such move since 2000 - had been successful for now, as the dollar stabilised around 81 yen and yen volatility retreated from recent highs.
In the near term, the 80 to 80.85 area could serve as a floor for the dollar against the yen, and a fall below could see renewed intervention by central banks.
On the upside, resistance is seen around 82 yen, the post-intervention high set on Friday. Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada together conducted around $32.3 billion worth of yen-selling intervention Friday.
Nomura estimates the Federal Reserve spent about $1 billion. Estimates for the Bank of England were not immediately available.
Stocks rallied in part on a glimmer of hope about Japan's nuclear crisis following a massive earthquake 10 days ago, further encouraging investors to wade back into riskier assets, which often involves selling yen to finance purchases.
The euro was last up 0.2 per cent at $1.4220 after rising to $1.42405 a 4-1/2-month high. Expectations the European Central Bank will lift interest rates at its next meeting in April have supported the euro.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar fell to 75.340 its lowest level since December 2009.
Indian Rupee
The Indian rupee was marginally stronger on Tuesday, supported by positive local shares, a strong euro and higher regional peers. Investors are more optimistic about the rupee's outlook in the near term on expectations of robust dollar inflows through external commercial borrowings (ECB), remittance and investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs).
Foreign funds had sold Indian shares worth a net $825.95 million in February, while they bought a net $319.95 million this month until March 20. So far in 2011 they have sold $1.89 billion of equity.
However, demand for dollars by oil importers may play spoilsport and put a lid on the rupee's gains during the day. Oil is India's biggest import and domestic oil refiners are the main purchasers of dollars in the local forex market. Indian shares extended gains to 1 per cent.
US crude oil futures were steady on Tuesday as supply concerns triggered by the spreading unrest in the Middle East supported prices, but uncertainty about demand from the world's No. 3 consumer Japan capped gains.
Oil prices rose 1 per cent on Monday. Total crude trading volumes remained well below average, continuing last week's trend and underscoring the uncertainty facing the market and diminished open interest, brokers and analysts said.
Anti-aircraft fire and explosions reverberated across Tripoli for a third night on Monday and state television said several sites had come under attack in the capital. Western powers had no immediate confirmation they had launched fresh strikes on Tripoli in a campaign to target Libyan air defences and enforce a no-fly zone.
Also supportive to products were analyst expectations that weekly reports on US oil inventories will show stockpiles fell last week.
Source: Richcomm Global Services DMCC, Dubai;

Price Update
YEN 80.88
AED / INR12.241
OIL - WTI)102.86
Date March 22, 2011
Time 10:39:07 AM
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Broker's Notes: Gold prices edges higher; yen drops against dollar
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